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Text File | 1992-05-12 | 17.2 KB | 381 lines

NFL_1992 Copyright @1992 Thomas C. Kerr All rights reserved 1.0 INTRODUCTION NFL_1992 for Windows 3.x is owned and distributed by: Thomas C. Kerr 5348 Black Oak Fairfax, VA 22032 NFL_1992 is a menu driven Windows 3.x application that allows you to predict, track, and update NFL football games. The 1992 NFL game schedule per week is stored within the NFL_1992 data files. The files also contain estimates of the offensive / defensive scoring strengths of each of the teams. The initial offensive and defensive ratings for each team are based on the combined scores of all 1991 regular season and playoff games. As the season wears on, and you use the program to enter 1992 pre-season and regular season games, the ratings estimates and actual game scores are saved in TEAMS.DAT and GAMES.DAT every time you choose to update its databases. Each week, it will take you approximately two or three minutes to enter Sunday's game scores. The program then updates its estimates of each team's offensive and defensive ratings and is immediately ready to predict next week's scheduled games or any "what if" game you are curious about. You can immediately see the new NFC and AFC conference standings without waiting for Monday morning's sports page or the evening news. The program is very simple to describe. It's colorful, and it's fun. Playing with it sure beats mowing the grass on Sunday afternoon, or thinking about work I should've done this weekend. I started running an early version of this program during the 1982 season - a Franklin 1000, Apple Basic and a green 25x40 Elephant monitor. MS-DOS, "C", and color windows certainly are more fun. Again, the program is very simple. It processes game scores and maintains a simple, two parameter database on each team. The data can be used to predict the outcome of next week's games. Based on statistics, the program should predict 70% of the games correctly between now and infinity. Typically, over the last nine seasons, the predictions have been pretty consistent in picking 9 to 10 winners per week out of 14 games. For three years, I tried some pretty sophisticated, numerical analysis techniques to improve the accuracy. I tracked team performance, in terms of offensive and defensive ratings, as a function of whether the teams were on the road or at home. I tried Dow-Jones type time series analysis - moving averages and weighted moving averages based on the last two weeks, three weeks, four weeks ... nine weeks, etc. By the time I was done, I had "successfully" lowered my prediction rate to low sixties. The more complicated I made the model or the more parameters I added for model sophistication, the worse I did. Finally, I gave up and went back to the two parameter model -- how does each team perform, offensively and defensively, relative to the average NFL team performance of 21 points scored per game. Over the course of a season, NFL teams average 21 points scored per game. And typically, a team that puts 28 points on the board per week and limits the other guy to 14 points per week generally comes out ahead of the team that puts 14 points on the board while giving up 28 points. In simple terms, that's the line taken by the predictions. When you stop and think about all the sophisticated statistics the commentators quote, they don't really do any better. Average points scored on the road in the fourth quarter - percentage of third down conversions - turnover ratio - number of real blonde cheerleaders between the 20-40 yard line markers. Statistically, the best team seems to win about 70% of the time - the rest of the time, it's a crap shoot. And there's always one week per season when almost every division leading team loses. 2.0 HOW IT WORKS NFL_1992 begins by reading two data files (TEAMS.DAT & GAMES.DAT) into memory. After that, all predictions and updates to team rankings and team ratings occur only in memory, unless you specifically choose to save the updates to the databases. The main menu has five choices: Update, Display, Predict, Print, or Input Playoffs. 3.0 UPDATE There are four options listed on the Update menu: Single Game Weekly Games Revise Scores New 1992 season Update mode is used to enter or revise scores of games that have been played - single game scores, such as playoff games and pre- season games - or an entire week's worth of scheduled games by filling in a program displayed form. These different modes are described in more detail below. 3.1 Single game A dialog box opens. A listbox displays the list of all NFL teams. A two line form is displayed which allows you to select two teams input their scores. Data arrays in memory are updated with respect to offensive and defensive ratings. This mode of update is designed for use in pre-season games and what-if games. It should NOT be used for regular season scheduled games. For that reason, team win-loss-tie records and NFC/AFC conference standings are not updated as a result of single game entry, even if you later choose to save the database updates. Pre-season and what-if game outcomes do not effect team standings within the conference divisions. Only the team offensive / defensive ratings are updated. These are the data elements that are used to predict subsequent game outcomes. 3.2 Weekly games A window opens and displays a form listing the entire week's scheduled games. The cursor positions automatically to game #1 - team #1's score. NFC/AFC conference standings, team offensive and defensive ratings, and win/loss records are updated based on the entered game scores. The program also displays data on how many winners it correctly predicted for the week as well as how many you predicted correctly, if you previously chose to disagree with its predictions. 3.3 Revise Scores OOPS! You can always correct scores for any regular season or post season game score that was entered incorrectly. (There's no way my software did that!) A window opens and displays last week's recorded scores in a "Weekly Games" type form. You can correct any or all of the previously entered scores. Any time this option is invoked and scores are updated, the program automatically "replays" all subsequent game weeks and updates the ratings and rankings by reapplying all game outcomes in the correct chronological order. 3.4 New 1992 season If all else fails, you can always throw away all previously entered game data and start the whole 1992 season over from week #1. For safety's sake, this choice requires a confirmation. There's no recovery from a YES unless you have saved or renamed a copy of the database files beforehand. Actually, this option zeroes all previously entered game scores and resets team strengths back to those at the end of the 1991 season, as retrieved from the file "TEAMS.0". If the file cannot be found, all teams strengths are reset to 21 + 21 = 42; i.e., all teams equal. 4.0 DISPLAY There are six display options listed on the Display menu: Results NFC Standings AFC Standings Ratings Schedules Report Card 4.1 Results A window opens and displays the scores of last week's games. Selecting push buttons of "Previous" or "Next" allows you to display the results of other weeks. 4.2 NFC Standings A window opens and displays the current win-loss-tie records of all NFC teams for the East, Central, and West Divisions. 4.3 AFC Standings A window opens and displays the current win-loss-tie records of all AFC teams for the East, Central, and West Divisions. 4.4 Ratings A window opens and displays the program's estimates of the relative strengths of all 28 NFL teams by adding the offensive and defensive ratings. Highest number total is the best. These are the numbers that are juggled when you ask for a single game or weekly games prediction. 4.5 Schedules A window opens and displays the schedule for next week's games. Selecting push buttons of "Previous" or "Next" allows you to display the schedule for other weeks. 4.6 Report Card A window opens and displays data for each week of the season relative to how many games the program has predicted correctly versus how many winners you have predicted correctly. 5.0 PREDICT There are three options listed on the Predict menu: Single Game Weekly Games Season Outcome 5.1 Single Game A dialog box opens. A listbox displays the list of all NFL teams. A two line form is displayed which allows you to select two teams. The predicted score of the game is displayed. This mode is designed for use in pre-season games and what-if games. 5.2 Weekly Games A window opens and displays the predicted outcomes of all next weekend's scheduled games based on the current offense/defense ratings in memory. Obviously, this mode is designed for regular season games. The program then allows you agree or disagree with any of the predictions. Checkboxes allow you to mark which game winner predictions you agree with versus disagree with. An " X " means you agree. The program automatically keeps track of how well you do and how well it does as the weekly scores are entered. The <Display> <Report Card> option is used to see how well we both perform over the season. 5.3 Season Outcome A window opens and displays the current projections for NFC and AFC championship playoffs and the Superbowl based on current teams ratings played throughout the remaining regular season game schedule. The idea is: If all remaining games end as predicted, who's going to win each division, and then each conference, and then the Superbowl. LIMITATIONS: This function does not pay any attention YET to the realities of what teams made the playoffs and what teams have been eliminated during playoffs. Once the playoff games have been scheduled, this option is no longer valid. 6.0 Input Playoffs A dialog box opens. A listbox displays the list of all NFL teams. A form is displayed which allows you to select the teams. NFL playoffs are based on four weeks of playoff games: Playoff Round #1 (Wildcards) - 4 games (Week #18) Conference Playoffs - 4 games (Week #19) Conference Championships - 2 games (Week #20) SuperBowl XXVII - 1 games (Week #21) After each playoff round has been scheduled (i.e., games input in terms of which teams are playing), the playoff round weeks can be predicted, displayed, updated, etc. just like any week of the regular season. All the functions of NFL_1992 work for the playoff round weeks, after you have input the schedule. The program allows you to input playoff games any time after week #10. No error checking is performed. However, the program allows you to enter and re-enter playoff games for any round UNTIL the scores for that round have been entered via <Update> <Weekly Games>. 7.0 STRATEGY OF USE The version of databases that comes with the program reflect the outcome of all 1991 regular season and post season games all the way through SuperBowl XXVII. Obviously, player retirements, trades, and college draft choices as well as coaching changes will effect next season. But, usually the first two or three pre-season games are "don't care" games where the coaching staffs are just trying to size up their newcomers and walk-ons before they have to start cutting down incrementally to the final 44-45 man roster. Personally, I recommend NOT using the program and NOT updating databases until the last week or so of pre-season games. Use single game predictions and single game updates for the final week of pre-season. Then go for it. My experience is that it takes about four weeks total for the program to get a pretty good handle on the teams - say - the last week of pre-season and the first three regular weekend games. From then on, what you see is what you get. The program performed best in weeks 4 through 17 during 1991. 8.1 Ties The program crunches integer Offense/Defense rating numbers. Some games come out as predicted ties. With NFL overtimes, this will almost never occur. But, in the NFL, the home team wins slightly more than 60% of the time. Therefore, the program adds one point to the home team score for all predicted ties as a "tie-breaker." 9.0 LICENSE AGREEMENT No part of this computer program may be reproduced, transmitted, transcribed, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into any language in any form or by any means, except as described in the following license agreement, without obtaining the express prior written consent of Thomas C. Kerr. The use of NFL_1992 is subject to the following terms and conditions: 9.1 Title to Licensed Software Title to the licensed software program is not transferred to the end user. The end user is granted an exclusive license to use the software on a SINGLE computer or computer workstation. 9.2 Copyright Protection NFL_1992 is a copyrighted computer program. It is protected by the copyright laws of the United States as well as by international law. You may not make any changes or modifications to NFL_1992. You may not decompile, disassemble, or otherwise reverse engineer the computer program. Usage of NFL_1992 implies your agreement and acceptance of the terms and conditions of this license agreement. 9.3 Limited Warranty Thomas C. Kerr warrants only that the magnetic media on which the NFL_1992 computer program is recorded and the limited documentation provided with it are free from defects in materials and workmanship under normal use. Thomas C. Kerr does not warrant that the licensed software will meet your requirements or that the operation of the software will be uninterrupted or error-free. The limited warranty does not cover any copy of the computer program which has been altered or changed in any way. Further, the warranty does not cover any media or documentation which has been subjected to abuse or damage by you or others. ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE LIMITED TO THE TERM OF EXPRESS WARRANTIES. Some states do not allow limitations on how long an implied warranty last; so the above limitation may not apply to you. The warranties set forth above are in lieu of any and all other express and/or implied warranties, whether oral, written, or implied, and the remedies set forth above are the sole and exclusive remedies. 9.4 Limitation of Liability Thomas C. Kerr is not responsible for any problems or damage caused by using the licensed software. This includes, but is not limited to, computer hardware, computer software, operating systems, and any computer or computing accessories. End users agree to hold Thomas C. Kerr blameless for any problems arising from use of NFL_1992. Thomas C. Kerr SHALL NOT IN ANY CASE BE LIABLE FOR ANY SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, INDIRECT, OR OTHER SIMILAR DAMAGES ARISING FROM ANY BREACH OF THE WARRANTIES EVEN IF THOMAS C. KERR HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES. Some states do not allow the exclusion or limitation of incidental or consequential damages; so the above limitation may not apply to you. In no case shall Thomas C. Kerr's liability exceed the license fees paid for the right to use NFL_1992. 9.5 Other Operators of electronic bulletin board systems may post the shareware version of NFL_1992 for downloading by their users without written permission only as long as the above conditions are met. 9.6 CAVEATS (Fatherly Advice) Do not use this program for gambling or betting. It just is not that good. If it could consistently beat the line, I'd have already done it, made my fortune, and retired. And you'd still be scanning the bulletin boards for something else to download. I wrote it for fun. Use it that way!